Bitfinex, the cryptocurrency exchange, said in a report released on Monday that the uncertainty of the US election, the "Trump Trading" narrative and seasonal factors in the fourth quarter created a "perfect storm" for Bitcoin, and the market is preparing for possible turbulence. Analysts believe that given the steady growth of Bitcoin call options and favorable seasonal factors in the fourth quarter, Bitcoin may break through a historic high of $73666 after the US election.

Bitcoin will experience significant fluctuations

Bitfinex's report pointed out that due to geopolitical uncertainty, macroeconomic factors and the increasingly strong narrative of "Trump trade", the volatility of Bitcoin has increased. Last week, Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline of 6.2% before rebounding. This pullback highlights the growing impact of the upcoming U.S. presidential election on recent prices. The market generally believes that the Republican Party's victory over Bitcoin and other risky assets is beneficial. The correlation between Trump's chances of being elected and Bitcoin's upward trend has been strengthened.

On the decentralized prediction market platform Polymarket, users believe that the probability of Trump winning has risen to 66.3%, while He Jinli has dropped to 33.7%.

Bitfinex analysts continued to discuss the trading situation in the Bitcoin options market, pointing out that high implied volatility suggests that market volatility may increase in the next two weeks.

The expectation surrounding the election has stimulated a surge in option activity, with options expiring on key days before and after the election being traded at higher premiums, and implied volatility expected to peak at a daily volatility of 100 on November 8th (i.e. after election day) - indicating that the market is preparing for potential volatility

Analysts say that regardless of the outcome of the US election, Bitcoin's short-term volatility is expected to be higher than usual, while in the long run, Bitfinex continues to hold a bullish attitude towards Bitcoin.

Seasonal bullish factors

The Bitfinex report also identified favorable seasonal factors for Bitcoin. Based on past history, Bitcoin typically performs strongly in the fourth quarter after a six-month decline, with a median quarterly return of 31.34%. Analysts suggest that this strong seasonal effect, combined with record breaking open interest in options and futures, reflects market participants' optimism towards the year-end phase and may drive Bitcoin to a historic high.

The report states, "Supporting this optimism is the steady growth of call options expiring on December 27th, particularly concentrated at the strike price of $80000. As open options contracts climb to new highs, the market is showing signs of laying out for a post election rally, which could push Bitcoin closer to or even beyond its historical high of $73666

(责任编辑：游戏)

• ·zen币价格今日行情
• ·BNB挖矿热钱包 BNB挖矿热钱包v6.8.9
• ·dash币最新价格-dash币最新价格行情
• ·中汇集团(00382)发行3595.44万股代息股份
• ·Kraken「接棒」FTX未竟之路：股票代币化，剑指万亿美元市场
• ·绿茵生态：全资子公司所属联合体中标85461671元项目
• ·重阳节股票-重阳节股票休市吗
• ·你我贷周末审核吗？
• ·十大数字货币交易平台排名 全球十大币圈交易所排名2025
• ·meme币交易所app下载官方 meme币最新版下载官方app下载
• ·谁是本轮加密周期的头号赚钱玩家？
• ·涨停揭秘 | 松发股份9连板涨停，封板资金2.76亿元
• ·白酒包装物押金消费税怎么计算
• ·兖矿能源(01171.HK)完成发行15亿元2024年度第二期中期票据(科创票据)
• ·链上数据揭示比特币牛市或刚刚起步
• ·meme币怎么注册 meme币交易所注册教程(最新)